Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
