A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
